Here's a link to a new Guttmacher-WHO study on worldwide abortion rates in the most recent issue of the Lancet. (And here's the NY Times story on the same.) According to the study (via the NY Times):
abortion rates are similar in countries where it is legal and those where it is not, suggesting that outlawing the procedure does little to deter women seeking it. Moreover, the researchers found that abortion was safe in countries where it was legal, but dangerous in countries where it was outlawed and performed clandestinely. ... In Eastern Europe, where contraceptive choices have broadened since the fall of Communism, the study found that abortion rates have decreased by 50 percent, although they are still relatively high compared with those in Western Europe. . . .In Uganda, where abortion is illegal and sex education programs focus only on abstinence, the estimated abortion rate was 54 per 1,000 women in 2003, more than twice the rate in the United States, 21 per 1,000 in that year. The lowest rate, 12 per 1,000, was in Western Europe, with legal abortion and widely available contraception.
I know there are serious problems estimating abortion rates in places where it is illegal, but my interest in the validity of this study is secondary to my interest in how, if true, it would interact with the Church's teachings on abortion's legality.
As I noted in my discussion down at the CST conference at Villanova, the Church normally distinguishes between a practice's morality and its legality, as it does in the case of, say, the just wage. But in the case of abortion, it has by and large skipped over that distinction, asserting that there is no room for prudential disagreement, not only as to abortion's morality, but also as to its legality.
Here's my question. If this study were true, and if it were the case that making abortion illegal would most likely only drive it underground, without having much effect on its actual incidence but making it far more dangerous for women to have an abortion, would that be a reason to rethink the Church's teachings, not on the morality of abortion, but on the tight connection between abortion's (im)morality and its legality? I've tried to get this conversation off the ground a few times at MOJ, but I feel like we often get side-tracked onto the question of abortion's morality or into the empirical question whether studies like this one are actually correct. Those are obviously interesting and important questions as well, but I'm more interested in the conceptual question.
A related, but broader, question goes to whether, as a general matter, Catholic legal theory requires the illegality of certain practices, apart from the likely consequences of attempting to make the practice illegal, both for the actual incidence of the practice and for respect for the law generally. Susan's written about this, as have a few others on the site, so your insights would be very interesting to me.