Predicting Hobby Lobby

At "Cornerstone," the blog on religious freedom of Georgetown's Berkley Center, I have an essay about the likely result in Hobby Lobby/Conestoga: "Kennedy, the Perennial Swing Vote, and the Likelihood of A Narrow Ruling." The title pretty much summarizes it. I think the fears that any ruling upholding Hobby Lobby's religious-freedom claim will reflect a libertarian, Lochner-type "trash government regulation" approach are greatly overstated, because there are principled narrow ways to reach that result:

We can’t be certain which way Kennedy, and therefore the Court, will go. My point is that the Court can sustain the companies’ challenges on narrow grounds that will not pose any threat to the broad range of commercial regulations. I hope, and I think the chances are good, that the Court will do just that.