"Minnesota Nice" and "Republican Geographic Path Dependency"

I suggested a few weeks ago (with tongue half in cheek) that Minnesota politicians are too nice to win the presidency and marshalled some historical evidence for the view. That quarter-baked "anecdotal theory" (our friends at St. Thomas can weigh in more authoritatively) is borne out in this Washington Post story about former Governor Tim Pawlenty's withdrawal from the Republican presidential race. By current lights, the Republican nominee will likely be either former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney or Texas Governor Rick Perry, which gives rise to "Republican Geographic Path Dependency." With one exception, every Republican elected to the presidency since 1920 was either a Texan (Eisenhower,* Bush, Bush) or a Californian (Hoover, Nixon, Reagan). The exception was Calvin Coolidge, who was governor of Massachusetts.

* I'm cheating a little with Eisenhower, but he was born in Texas.