Catholic Voters and Obama

From the NYTimes online blog, The Caucus:

November 5, 2008, 11:41 am     

Catholics Turned to the Democrat

By Michael Luo        

Much was made in 2004 of the so-called “God gap” between Republicans and Democrats, becoming part of the conventional wisdom explaining President Bush’s victory over Senator John F. Kerry.

As a result, the Democratic Party, including Senator Barack Obama, focused heavily on outreach to religious voters, including white evangelicals who voted overwhelmingly for President Bush, and talked more openly than ever before about faith.

So did all the God-talk pay off?

The verdict appears to be mixed, but Mr. Obama does appear to have scored some significant victories, especially among Roman Catholics, according to nationwide surveys of voters leaving the polls on Tuesday and telephone interviews of some people who had voted early.

One striking difference this year compared with 2004 was Mr. Obama’s gain among those who attend church (or a synagogue or mosque) more than weekly. Mr. Obama won 43 percent of them, Mr. McCain 55 percent. The group accounted for 12 percent of the electorate. In 2004, the group represented 16 percent of the electorate, with Mr. Kerry claiming only 35 percent to President Bush’s 64 percent.

The difference with 2004 in the vote of those who attend a house of worship weekly was not as dramatic. They accounted for 27 percent of voters, with Mr. Obama winning 43 percent and Mr. McCain 55 percent. In 2004, they represented 26 percent of the electorate, with Mr. Kerry getting 41 percent and Mr. Bush 58 percent.

While the Democrats put enormous focus on peeling away white evangelical Protestants from the Republican base, Mr. McCain, who has had at times a tense relationship with the group, still took 73 percent of that vote, compared with Mr. Obama’s 26 percent. They accounted for nearly a quarter of the electorate, just as in 2004, when President Bush won a whopping 78 percent of their votes, with Mr. Kerry getting only 21 percent.

Notably, Mr. Obama failed to do even as well as former Vice President Al Gore in 2000, when he ran against then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush. Mr. Gore won 30 percent of that vote that year and Mr. Bush won 68 percent.

On the other end of the religious spectrum, Mr. Obama won 67 percent of those who never attend church, while 30 percent of those voters went for Mr. McCain. The group represented 16 percent of voters. In 2004, Mr. Kerry beat Mr. Bush 62 percent to 36 percent in that group, which accounted for 15 percent of the electorate.

But religious experts said the swing in the Catholic vote may be one of the more significant political developments, despite the emphasis that Democrats have put on attracting evangelical voters. Although Mr. Kerry is Catholic, he won only 47 percent of Catholic voters, while President Bush drew 52 percent. That represented a reversal from 2000 when Mr. Gore won 50 percent of Catholics and Mr. Bush won 47 percent.

On Tuesday, Catholics, who accounted for about a quarter of the electorate, supported Mr. Obama, at 54 percent, over Mr. McCain, at 45 percent.