Sunstein and Ponnuru on Roe and the GOP

Returning to an old, recurring topic:  A week or so ago, The New Republic provided an exchange between Professor Cass Sunstein and Ramesh Ponnuru of the National Review on the question whether the reversal of Roe v. Wade would help or hurt the Republican Party.  Sunstein wrote:

For at least 20 years, it has been clear that the most prominent leaders in the Republican Party do not really want Roe v. Wade to be overturned.  True, many of them strongly object to abortion on moral grounds. But they have made no serious efforts to amend the Constitution to protect fetal life, and under Republican presidents, most Supreme Court nominees have not been clear opponents of the Court's decision.  Instead of seeking to overturn Roe, Republican leaders have used it in exactly the same way that the Party used Emmanual Goldstein in Orwell's 1984--as an all-purpose object of hatred and fear, a symbol of the threat to all that is moral and good, an occasion for the Two Minutes Hate, offered on television every day.

In Orwell's tale, the Party badly needs Goldstein. Its survival depends on him. Republican officials probably do not need Roe v. Wade, but they greatly benefit from a situation in which the decision remains on the books, inspires both loyalty and anger, and serves as a reminder of what Democrats would like to entrench and what Republicans are trying to undo.

In Ponnuru's view, though, "[p]ro-lifers who are incrementalist in strategy and moderate in tone would, in short, be positioned to do quite well after Roe fell, and the Republican Party would have enough flexibility to prosper. The theory that pro-lifers would be dealt a stunning setback by the realization of their fondest goal is interestingly counterintuitive, and it has become a shibboleth for sophisticated pundits. But it's probably wrong."

I'm not sure who is right about this.  It does seem worth noting, though, that Roe plays something like a Goldstein role (or, maybe, a reverse-Goldstein role) for the Democrats, too -- it strikes me that the Democratic Party is able to mobilize and motivate many of its strongest (and most generous) supporters with the "Two Minute Roe-is-one-vote-from-going."  Which side "needs" Roe more?