On Catholic voters

A former student of mine passes along the following review of some recent poll data and research concerning Catholic voters in America:

BEL

DEN RUSSONELLO & STEWART, The View from Mainstream America: The Catholic
Voter in Summer 2004 - Washington, D.C.: BRS, 2004. pp. 70.
Reviewed by Georgie Ann WEATHERBY, Gonzaga University, Spokane, WA
99258-0065

This reflection of 2004 Catholic voters posits the statistics presented as
being "reliable indicator(s) of the attitudes and preferences of the nation
as a whole concerning politics in presidential elections" (pg. 3). These
are derived from a complex stratified sample (pg. 72, Appendix A).

Catholic voters are depicted as a group that exemplifies the bandwagon
effect. Representing one quarter of the electorate, they routinely (and
without fail) support winners of the popular vote. Hence, they "present us
with a snapshot of mainstream American public opinion" (pg. 3).

The report grapples with cutting-edge topics ranging from the war in Iraq to
same-sex marriage, assisted suicide, stem cell research, their bishops'
political involvement, and abortion. Other than the admitted oversampling
of Hispanics, a cross-section of Catholics appears to be represented (total
N = 2,239).

Trends to be noted include the fact that Catholics are more Hispanic and
less African American than the electorate as a whole. Catholics are also
more urban and northeastern, less southern, and more tend to identify
themselves as members of the Democratic Party. They are more "cultural"
than "religious" in their voting choices. They are pro-legalized abortion
(61%), pro-choice (53%), pro-stem cell research (72%), supportive of the
death penalty (71%), and somewhat in favor of physician-assisted suicide
(53%). They are by and large not influenced by stands taken by their
Catholic bishops (pg. 4).

While it is noted that "candidates who win the popular vote win the Catholic
vote" (pg. 4), the reverse is also true (when one wins the Catholic vote,
they take the nation's vote). This may be somewhat more significant to
pollsters attempting to make election predictions based on limited samples.

An important finding is that the election, as of summer 2004, was in a dead
heat between Kerry and Bush. Resolving the situation in Iraq will
ultimately drive the Catholic vote in one direction or the other. Those who
have confidence in Bush to "resolve" the war intend to vote for him.
Conversely, those who have not much or very little confidence in him on this
matter have pledged their votes to Kerry (pg. 5).

More specifically, the book highlights the fact that Catholics are adamant
about not mixing religion and politics -- 70% are not in the least
influenced by the views of their Catholic bishops, and disapprove of
politicians being denied communion on the basis of their stands against
church teaching on timely political issues (such as legalized abortion).

It is "political beliefs that are driving attitudes on the election and on
issues, not attendance at Mass" (pg. 6). Political ideology is overall a
better predictor. Catholic voters' highest priorities are "protecting
Social Security, American jobs, and improving health care" (pg. 7). Also,
concern is expressed about improving education, Medicare, moral values, and
fighting crime, cutting taxes, protecting civil liberties, and protecting
the environment (pg. 7).

Hispanic Catholics are younger, less educated, and have lower incomes than
the Catholic population overall. While being a "large city" vote, Hispanics
are in reality less likely to vote at all (pg. 8). Two issues are at the
fore of Hispanic concern -- improving health care and public education. On
many other issues, they reflect overall Catholic sentiments (pg. 8) while
being more punctuated with higher numbers, except for their reverse views on
the war in Iraq. On the flip side of the 45%/54% split of Catholics
overall, the majority of Hispanic Catholics want our troops in Iraq home
within six months (54%) versus 44% who think they should stay as long as
necessary (pp. 63-64). Hispanic women (59%) are most ardent about the
undelayed return of our military. The majority of Hispanic Catholics (59%)
have very little or not much confidence in Bush's ability to solve the
situation. Only 19% of this population has a great deal of confidence about
this issue (pg. 64).

Further regression analyses reveal the strongest predictors of the
presidential vote include demographic and lifestyle characteristics. For
example, those who are upper educated are Kerry voters, those who are
married are more likely Bush voters (pg. 14). Frequent church goers tend to
be more conservative, but when ideology enters the mix, these figures skew
toward Kerry among all but the most self-identified of the right wing (pg.
16). Other areas of concern among Catholics include protecting civil
liberties (24%) and protecting the environment (23%). Of all the issues
presented in the survey, "the most important factor in determining how
Catholics will vote in November is their confidence in President Bush's
ability to resolve the conflict in Iraq" (pg. 31). As with Hispanics, this
is highlighted again and again as the one predictor that overshadows all
others.

A healthy 74% of Catholic voters support allowing public schools to include
morning prayer in the classroom (pg. 55). A clear division between
Republicans/Conservatives (for) and Democrats/Liberals (against) exists for
the support of school vouchers (help paying for tuition costs in private
and/or religious schools with tax revenue - pg. 56). A full 72% support the
idea of stem cell research. This particular issue cuts across demographic
and ideological differences -- encompassing those on the far left and far
right (pg. 57). Physician-assisted suicide of a terminally ill patient is
supported by a slight majority (pg. 58). With the exception of Hispanics,
fairly strong opposition is shown to children of illegal immigrants being
allowed to attend public schools (56% opposition to 44% support).

In sum, to date the Catholic vote has reflected the values and wishes of the
American people in general. Those who are as yet undecided will determine
the outcome of the November 2004 presidential election. We need to follow
them closely. In critiquing this piece as a whole, there are straight
statistics offered with very little interpretation beyond simple
demographic and ideological comparisons. Future versions (as this appears
to be a work in progress) should generate predictions based on more pointed,
future-directed questions. Tests of feelings on the war in Iraq come
closest to this effort presently.

I'm not sure what to make of all this. I'm torn between wishing that "being Catholic" made more of a difference -- that is, made Catholic voters somehow meaningfully different than others -- and thinking that the numbers confirm that reasonable, faithful Catholics -- doing their best to "operationalize" Catholic Social Teaching -- can wind up in different camps. (That said, the fact that Catholic voters seem so drearily representative on "life issues" makes me wonder if bad catechesis, not careful prudential judgments, explain the numbers).

Rick